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Basic Probability for Enchantments[]

Updated: Oct 30, 2020

SDM chant success.PNG








The only gear you need to be an effective enchanter is: 2 Rings of Intelligence 1 Amulet of Intelligence

To be a fully capable chanter you will need the following skills: Meditation (level 6) Sorcery – (level 6) Elementalism – Proficient (Level 2) Thaumaturgy – Master (level 4) Necromancy – Expert (level 3)

A Perm affects the item. Improve Armor, Flame Blade and Cold Steel, Electric Charge, and Venom are all permed. MAKE SURE to use the permanency spell for the fire/ice/venom/electric damage on your weapon. It is possible to enchant these spells but they will not function properly! Improve armor can be done using either enchant or permanency. 

A Enchant affects the toon. Strength, Dexterity, Regen, Immo, and any element Shields are Enchanted. 

For Str/Dex Stacking: First chant gives +3, second +2, third +1, anything more than 4 gives 0.5/each, but you don't see the benefit until you get two of the 0.5's to make a whole number, meaning you can get a maximum of +18 if you enchant every item you can equip (Including a shield).

Suggested Chants for your gear: Robes cost essentially nothing so it's a good candidate to 6x with lots of shields. This takes pressure off the rings (which are often highly expensive) so that you only have to risk 3x on them.

If you are wearing master gear, it is common to only 3x your armor. The extra regen is questionably useful and it's generally not worth risking such expensive armor for that 4th enchantment!

Item 1 2 3 4 5 6
Robe/Skirt Str Dex Regen Acid S.   Lightning S. Poison S.
Belt Str Dex Regen Cold S.   
Amulet Str Dex Regen Fire S.   
Ring 1 Str Dex Regen   
Ring 2 Str Dex Regen   
Baldric Str Dex Regen Immo   
Helm Imp. Arm. Str Dex Regen   
Shirt Imp. Arm. Str Dex Regen   
Pants Imp. Arm Str Dex Regen   
Cowl Imp. Arm Str Dex Regen   
Wrist Imp. Arm Str Dex Regen   
Feet Imp. Arm Str Dex Regen   
Shield Imp. Arm Str Dex Regen   
Weapon Fire Ice Venom Electric Str
   Fire Ice Venom Electric Dex
   Fire Ice Electric Str Dex
Backpack Str Dex Regen Missile S.

Advanced Probability for Enchantments[]

Updated: Oct 30, 2020

What follows here is a more advanced explanation of the probability involved in enchanting. This is useful because the table above states the chance of success, but the odds of a dysfunctional enchantment or popping the item are not explicitly clear. So this is Muddle's study of the probability for attuned enchanting in TRO. I just enchanted a bunch of stuff with my 219 attuned chanter, and recoded the results! Here’s the raw data:

For shorthand, ✓ means a successful enchantment, ○ is a spell that “did not function properly”, and × is when the item disintegrates, or ‘pops’. 

1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x
o x o x o x o x o x o x
138 14 4 134 7 2 131 10 4 99 19 7 69 48 18 28 83 27

Are the odds of success really what is listed in the game?

1.png

Here’s what it looks like when you graph it. The percent chance of success is labelled just above the dark blue bars. Notably, all of them are really close (within 4%) to the 90/90/90/80/50/20 odds the game tells you, so it looks like those numbers are legit. This graph also proves that the odds of a dysfunctional enchantment are much higher than the odds of popping at every level.



Ignoring all of the ‘dysfunctional’ enchantments, what are the real chances of succeeding at each enchantment level?

Chant 2.png

The success rates in that first graph don’t tell the whole story because the ‘dysfunctional’ data makes it hard to be sure what your real odds of success are if, like most of us, you just want to know the odds of enchanting an item without poofing it! This next graph clears this up a bit, by completely removing all of the data for enchantments that did not function properly, and considering only the odds of succeeding or popping the item. Now we can see that even when trying for 6x, the likelihood of succeeding is 51%, which is pretty good! 


What are my chances of enchanting a clean item all the way up to 6x?

Chant 3.png

To answer this question, we need to multiply the chances at each stage cumulatively. So for example, using the data from the graph just above, the odds of reaching 4x is (0.97 × 0.99 × 0.97 × 0.93) × 100 = 87%. A graph for all of the enchantment levels is shown to the right. Amazingly, the odds of reaching 5x is 69%, and the odds of reaching 6x are about 35%. Not bad!



How universal is this data?

Enchanting is a gamble so there is always a huge role of chance. And even after the hundreds of tests I recorded my data is obviously not perfect. But I can guess at the true underlying mechanics based on my data, and make predictions that I think are general for all players, based on a few assumptions:

  • Assumption 1) I am convinced that the 90/90/90/80/50/20 odds stated in the game are true, so let’s trust those numbers.
  • Assumption 2) Adding up all my data, I found that dysfunctional chants occurred more often than popping the item at every enchantment level. And in fact, the top graph shows that the ratio is pretty consistent from 1x all the way up to 6x. Overall, I found a ratio of 2.9:1 when comparing dysfunctional attempts to item pops. So my second assumption is that, at every enchantment level, the true odds of a dysfunctional enchantment are exactly 3x higher than a poof.  

Based on those assumptions, I am convinced that the table below represents the true probabilities for enchanting in the Realm. 

Chant lvl

o x
1x 90% 7.5% 2.5%
2x 90% 7.5% 2.5%
3x 90% 7.5% 2.5%
4x 80% 15% 5%
5x 50% 37.5% 12.5%
6x 20% 60% 20%

Chants 4.png

Based on those numbers, I can replot the true cumulative success chance of enchanting (shown here). I believe that these percentages represent very accurate odds of reaching a given enchantment level when starting with a clean item. So in reality, you probably have a 87% chance of 4x’ing an item, 70% chance of 5x’ing it, and a 36% chance of reaching 6x!



How much should an item’s value increase at each enchantment level?

This can be calculated by dividing 1.0 by each percentage, in fractional form. Based on the table below, a 3x item should be 9% more valuable than clean, 4x should be 15% more valuable, 5x should be 43% more valuable, and 6x should be 2.8 times as valuable as a clean item! But sadly, most traders will not give you 3 times the clean price for a 6x item. So if you are enchanting items you want to sell, 3-5x is usually a strategic choice ;)

Chant lvl Cumulative odds of success Price Multiplier
1x 0.97 1.03
2x 0.95 1.06
3x 0.92 1.09
4x 0.87 1.15
5x 0.70 1.43
6x 0.36 2.77